Forum Topic

Lessons from the Albert'a Referedum

It seems that Albertans have voted overwhelming NOT to seek a binding referendum on leaving the Canadian federation. Perhaps it is time for the people of England to have a similar referendum on whether we should seek a binding referendum on leaving the UK. It might focus the minds of a few people!

Sam Hearn ● 10d40 Comments

The 2016 referendum wasn't binding. The doctrine of parliamentary sovereignty means that no referendum result is binding on the government without parliament having explicitly authorised such a derogation in the Act providing for the referendum. On the basis that the 2016 referendum was only advisory, and not binding, the government of the day considered it unnecessary to require a qualified majority in favour of leaving the UK. Unfortunately, after Cameron's resignation, Teresa May took it upon herself to interpret the result as binding. Not only did this lead to the catastrophe that is Brexit, but a decision to leave based on a majority of a mere 51.9% created enormous division in the country, on top of all the rancour generated by the campaigning. MPs who accepted the case for not requiring a qualified majority were alarmed to find that the government considered the matter to have been settled by the pencil-slim difference between the leave and remain votes.Referendums on matters of high constitutional importance should never be held without requiring a qualified majority. This creates problems for remainers who would like to see the decision revisited. If in general it is sensible to require a qualified majority on any referendum, would it be acceptable, in the case of a vote to apply for re-entry to the EU, to require a majority greater than that which led to our departure? Or are referendums simply inappropriate and alien to the doctrine of parliamentary sovereignty? Should they never be contemplated in respect of major constitutional issues?

Robert Fish ● 10d

In the case of N Ireland status within the UK, in the Good Friday Agreement (something else that the Brexit referendum was clueless about...), there is provision for a referendum (so-called border poll) in both N Ireland and Republic of Ireland for a united Ireland.I don't believe the Good Friday Agreement says if the border polls should be a qualified majority or not but I'm certainly not a constitutional lawyer.If the border poll wasn't a qualified majority, I think the UK government would be incredibly stupid to have a border poll unless they were very confident of a larger majority than 51.9% in favour of a united Ireland.I appreciate there is a contradiction about only running a referendum unless you are confident about the result of the referendum. 

Michael Robinson ● 10d

As I understand it, the Good Froday Agreement requires only a simple majority in the border poll. Imagine how contentious a 51.9% majority would be!

Robert Fish ● 9d

Sam, I realise the SNP and the Senedd Wales purport to leave the UK, but I was unaware the people of England were in favour.Correct me if I'm wrong.

Denis I. Fox ● 9d

I strongly believe that the aggressive posturing of the political leaders in Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland should not go unchallenged. If the people of England were actually asked if they wanted to be part of the UK I think that a few home truths might come to light. Only the SNP believes that Scotland's economic prospects would improve with full independence and Wales and NI would not be magically transformed from the economic basket cases that they are if they were "paddling their own canoes".No political party represented in England is debating the possible breakup of the UK. It is essential that we do not sleep walk into the breakup - this is not something that just effects the Welsh, the Scots and the people of Ulster. Dissolving the UK will have a huge political, economic and social impact on the English.   

Sam Hearn ● 9d

I always said a vote for brexit was a vote for the breakup of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland, primarily becuase it was a vote to put an international border back on the island of Ireland, but it was also clear the Scottish would vote remain.Lots of brexit supporters had images of the UK flag on their profiles etc..., but when you told them they were voting to make that flag history they didn't understand.Pretty sure the only way of bringing this back is to join the EU, at least in some capacity.

Paul James ● 9d

(United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland I meant above)

Paul James ● 9d

Sam, desires for independence are not about economics.I daresay that if the Republic of Ireland had stayed in the UK, Ireland would have been economically better off for a proportion of the last 100 years but how many people in Ireland would now say they regret becoming independent and would want to return to the UK?There was never any credible argument that the UK would have a better economy outside the EU, just wishful thinking from Brexiteers.

Michael Robinson ● 9d

It was incomprehensible Cameron didn’t choose a qualified majority, his decision is probably one of the most damaging decisions in UK government history, the damage is disastrous and ongoing.But what’s the point of another referendum when the same bunch of charlatans will peddle the same lies? If we had another referendum, it would probably be 53-47 rejoin and as you say would that be enough to formal rejoin.I tend to think we shouldn’t bother with a referendum and let the parties decide what they want in their manifestoes.Any party that wants to get elected knows the only option is to get closer to the EU, economics, security are all better served by being in a closer relationship with the EU.

Craig David Mcdowell ● 9d

Has anyone taken a look at those EU Countries and noticed the mess they are in, do we really need riots on our streets.

Janice Evans ● 9d

Sam, I believe Andy Burnham and Sir Keir before him have been too preoccupied with other factors than worrying about an unlikely split-up of the UK.By this I mean concerns about Ukraine, Iran, Uncontrolled Immigration, Cost of Living, Energy, Welfare, Young Unemployment.Devolution in Wales and Scotland has proved disastrous and both Labour PMs probably think the Celtic people wouldn't vote for self determination.Northern Irish protestants would never vote to leave the UK but not so Sinn Fein and Catholics.

Denis I. Fox ● 9d

>Has anyone taken a look at those EU Countries and noticed the mess they are inGetting all your information from "news" channels Janet?>do we really need riots on our streets.As my French mate said."We're not f*****g 'avin it".

Paul James ● 9d

Paul, wake up.

Janice Evans ● 9d

Agree on Northern Irish.

Janice Evans ● 9d

The state of their economy was one of the main drivers of Scotland joining the union.

Keith Iddon ● 9d

Yes Keith but that was a long time ago-THE ACTS OF UNION!- 1707!

Denis I. Fox ● 9d

A couple of assertions might need to be qualified. Firstly, 'desires for independence are not about economics' and secondly 'Northern Irish Protestants would never vote to leave the UK'.

Recently I was a guest of a family in Northern Ireland for a few days. They are not Irish by birth but have made their home there for the last several decades as had many of their circle of friends. As they have not been brought up in either the nationalist or loyalist tradition they take a purely practical view of the constitutional situation largely determined by economics. The rising prosperity of Northern Ireland has brought many people there who think like this — probably about 5-10% of the population. If there was a referendum on unity they would support the side that the believed would make them wealthier.

The consensus seemed to be that unity was the better option for Northern Ireland but the trouble that would be caused by about 35,000 irreconcilables concentrated in  disadvantaged parts of East Belfast outweighed any potential economic benefits. This seems to be an increasing view point both north and south of the border.

On the other hand it would be wrong to see there still being a Protestant voting block. More people including most professions now do much more cross border business since Brexit and can see advantages in further restrictions in trade being removed. Protestant farmers  sell most of their produce into the Republic and would make more money if the borders are removed. While not all are totally reconciled to a United Ireland, very few would be joining an armed resistance against it.

Obviously a few days' visit doesn't make me an expert on this but I did learn from people who live there that this is a much more nuanced and complex situation than I appreciated.

Jeremy Parkinson ● 9d

"if the Republic of Ireland had stayed in the UK, Ireland would have been economically better off for a proportion of the last 100 years but how many people in Ireland would now say they regret becoming independent and would want to return to the UK?" In 1939 the population of the 26 counties (What is now the Republic) was a shade under 3m. Between 1916 and 1939 between 600k and 700k emigrated. This was a huge demographic shift that changed Ireland forever. The current population of Ireland is largely descended from those who made a decision not to leave and those who made a positive decision to move to Ireland from all over the world. Hardly surprising then if the current citizens of Ireland did not want to change the status quo. I defer to your greater personal knowledge of these matters, Michael.

Sam Hearn ● 8d

After reading both Jeremy and Sam's assessments on the Emerald Isle I can deduce only this:IF YOU THINK YOU UNDERSTAND THE IRISH YOU HAVE BEEN MISINFORMED

Denis I. Fox ● 8d

Sam,I think it’s fair to say that the Great Famine (when Ireland was part of the UK) had a much greater impact on demographics. About 1 million dead and estimates of up to 2 million emigrating.The population of the island now is still less than it was pre-famine.

Michael Robinson ● 7d

Michael - I do not disagree with you about the impact of Great Famine and indeed I do not disagree with your about about how the current population of Southern Ireland would respond to an offer to rejoin the UK. The points that I was making were rather more subtle.Reunification is now very much on the agenda and I would hope that discussion of the implications will not be left solely to Irish and Ulster politicians. Those of us on "John Bulls Island" should not be excluded. Many of us have relatives, friends, professional and business contacts both north and south. Our perspectives may be different from those living on the island of Ireland but that does make them illegitimate or irrelevant.

Sam Hearn ● 7d

Michael - I do not disagree with you about the impact of Great Famine and indeed I do not disagree with your about about how the current population of Southern Ireland would respond to an offer to rejoin the UK. The points that I was making were rather more subtle.Reunification is now very much on the agenda and I would hope that discussion of the implications will not be left solely to Irish and Ulster politicians. Those of us on "John Bulls Island" should not be excluded. Many of us have relatives, friends, professional and business contacts both north and south. Our perspectives may be different from those living on the island of Ireland but that does make them illegitimate or irrelevant.

Sam Hearn ● 7d

It might be difficult for us in Great Britain to claim a say in any progress to Irish unity when we were so dismissive of the Irish point of view (both of the north and the south) on Brexit.

Francis Rowe ● 7d

Sam,The process for Irish unification is documented in the Good Friday Agreement.It would involve two referendums (referenda?) in N Ireland and Republic of Ireland.A decision to hold a referendum is with the Secretary of State for N Ireland.  The criteria to trigger a referendum are somewhat vague but that "constructive ambiguity" is probably deliberate.So as a Westminster politician, the SoS can take into account a range of views in the decision to trigger a referendum but once initiated, the decision is for the people of Ireland, north and south.

Michael Robinson ● 7d

I don't believe there is any great clamour for Irish unification, so I would guess Chris Bryant, the new Secretary of State for Northern Island just wishes for peace to prevail, especially with all the trouble brewing from the east.It cannot go unmentioned that Boris Johnson, prominent in getting brexit through the door, negotiated a rotten deal for Northern Ireland, leaving them neither in or out of the EU, and is to this day hampered with its trade operations.Perhaps Chris Bryant can improve Rishi's Windsor deal between Belfast and the EU.

Denis I. Fox ● 6d

On the evidence of a brief trip, there may not be a clamour for reunification but there is a general acceptance that it is inevitable although it will take decades rather than years.On Brexit, does seem to have resulted in trade moving away from GB and reorienting to the rest of Ireland making the economy of the island more integrated. Although leaving the EU was seen as a big negative for the area, there were warm words for Rishi Sunak who was seen as having actually taken Northern Ireland's interests into account unlike Johnson. People were prepared to admit there were some positives that have come out of the Windsor Framework.

Jeremy Parkinson ● 4d

It is telling that the people you conversed with on your trip were politically aware, and despite the downturns in trading post brexit, they saw an improvement since Rishi's Windsor deal.I remember bumbling Boris put all his faith in a sophisticated digital setup to solve the trade border, but didn't count for the bloc's intransigence, resulting in heaps of unwarranted paperwork.

Denis I. Fox ● 4d

I remember at the time nobody actually involved in cross border trade, particularly of agricultural products believed in the technological solutions proposed by Johnson — he made this up. By the same token, I have never met anybody who regularly moves goods cross border, either during this trip or before, who believes that the EU has created unreasonable certification demands as a punishment for the UK. These would also negatively affect the Republic for which the UK remains a very important trading partner. The 'punishment myth' seems to have been propagated as a way to shift blame away from the people who advocated for Brexit without fully understanding its implications. EU bureaucrats were credited by those I spoke to with a very flexible and constructive attitude which allowed Rishi Sunak to mitigate some of the damage.

Jeremy Parkinson ● 4d

EU Countries are not doing well, yet some had far better deals than we did,it's aurelybetter we are mostly out than in.

Janice Evans ● 3d

Surely better that should say.

Janice Evans ● 3d

The perception held by most brexiteers was that the EU fully weaponised the difficulty raised in creating a trade border without disturbing the Good Friday agreement.Our government was unable to get to grips with this problem just as successive governments have been unable to make brexit work: probably lacking the will to do so.

Denis I. Fox ● 3d

Brexiteers perceptions were often shaped by a limited real world understanding particularly with regard to Northern Ireland.

The economic consequences of leaving the EU are still being played out but there isn't really serious analysis that disputes they have been negative. Certainly, Northern Ireland, which got the best terms of any part of the UK sees it in terms of damage mitigation rather than a platform for success. People in NI seem to credit the UK government with being helpful since we started choosing Prime Ministers who were competent but it is really a case of limiting harms rather than 'making Brexit work'. The more farsighted Irish and Scottish Unionists opposed Brexit because they understood that it was a step forward for unity in one country and independence for another. English nationalists will view it as a success if measured by the yardstick of their very narrow definition of sovereignty but the consequences for the UK remain to be seen and the path we are currently on doesn't bode well for its cohesion in the medium term.

Jeremy Parkinson ● 3d

I think it is kind to say Brexiteers had "limited" real world understanding of how it applied to N Ireland.  "limited" implies some knowledge but there appeared to be zero consideration of implications prior to the vote and complete ignorance of the situation in Ireland and the obligations of the Good Friday Agreement.Belief there was a better deal to be negotiated may be another example of Brexiteer "cakeism", thinking they could leave the EU and still enjoy all the benefits.For anyone interested in the topic, there is a forthcoming talk at the Hammersmith Irish Centre by someone who has written a book about it.https://irishculturalcentre.co.uk/event/lecture-irelands-call-how-brexit-got-done-by-stephen-collins/

Michael Robinson ● 3d

It wasn't about sovereignty for most it was about being treated fairly, which it seems a lot of EU Countries are suffering now.

Janice Evans ● 3d

In what way were we being treated unfairly by the EU?

There is no doubt that it is a tough time for European economies at the moment but that is down to a range of factors including higher energy prices and Chinese competition hitting their much larger manufacturing sectors. Our service based economy has been relatively immune although we may have a big shock coming due to AI. Europeans in general don't seem to be blaming the EU for these issues and if anything support for membership is even higher than it was before. Even Le Pen now has abandoned notions of Frexit and the AfD is edging towards a policy of reform not departure.

Francis Rowe ● 2d

The majority of people who voted in favour of the UK leaving the EU simply had no idea of the ramifications and consequences of that seemingly simple decision.If they did, we wouldn’t have so many of them now saying this isn’t what we voted for, Brexit was betrayed, etc. etc.A majority voted yes in the referendum, and the government implemented what the majority voted yes to, leaving the EU.The UK might have been in a worse position if we hadn’t left the EU, but my suspicion is that while plenty of people believe that to be the case, including several posters on this thread, this view isn’t shared by the majority of the UK currently.The electorate and governments of this country have made the bed that we all (*) find ourselves lying in, and we are where we are.(*) Obviously some people are in more comfortable bits of the bed, and the people who don’t live in this country but still find it in their hearts to support Reform to the hilt, aren’t in the same bed at all.

Andrew Jones ● 2d

Francis, no they don't blame anyone that's why they are protesting 😏

Janice Evans ● 1d

We pay more than all of them for our energy, they are not protesting here.

Janice Evans ● 1d

Andrew, who is saying this is not what we voted for, certainly not me I think it was for the better and more so seeing what's going on now in EU Countries with no sign of improving.

Janice Evans ● 1d

The economic situation of most EU countries is not great but that is probably despite rather than because of EU membership. The bloc enforced fiscal discipline both as a condition of membership and being part of the Euro. These conditions were loosened because of Covid but the extra debt that was built up now needs to be dealt with by spending cuts. The French protests began with complaints about the state of school buildings.Your point about Europeans protesting despite lower energy costs is a good one. Unlike Europe we have a very small manufacturing sector which means our economy is less exposed to higher energy prices. We (businesses and individuals) were already paying  a lot more so we have made the adjustment and the percentage increases have been less for us. They also typically have a much bigger farming community and they have been especially hard hit by rising fuel and fertiliser costs.Things do look pretty bleak in Europe right now. Being in the EU won't protect countries from what is to come. However, the real danger is that we see a rise of economic nationalism, calls for an end to trade cooperation and new internal borders across Europe. At this stage nobody with any chance of power is advocating for this (partly due to the example of Brexit) but, if we get there, it will be catastrophic.

Francis Rowe ● 1d